Links

Monday, March 7, 2016

A Historical Look at KU and One-and-Done Players

The ball is tipped. And here we are.

The calendar has flipped from the consequence-free National holiday of Leap Day over to March 1st, marking the unofficially official start to the College Basketball season.

To celebrate, I wanted to do a historical study consisting of the few debatable topics surrounding Bill Self's tenure at the University of Kansas: NCAA Tournament success and one-and-done players.

The premise of this statistical look is simple: Was there a one-and-done player on the roster vs. how did KU fare in the NCAA Tournament? For shits and giggles, as well as a bit of a control group, I threw in another factor pundits often point to when it comes to success in The Big Dance -- senior leadership.

Lets start with Bill Self's first year at KU, the 2003-04 season, which will be referred to as 2004 in this article, for clarity's sake. I've also simplified the following chart to read "Senior" for what I'd consider sufficient senior leadership, and "Freshman" for the presence of a one-and-done player on the roster. If neither are present, I simply put "None." The final number in the chart is how many games KU won in the NCAA Tournament that season.

  • 2004 - None - 3
  • 2005 - Senior - 0
  • 2006 - None - 0
  • 2007 - None - 3
  • 2008 - Senior - 6
  • 2009 - None - 2
  • 2010 - Senior - Freshman - 1
  • 2011 - Senior - Freshman - 3
  • 2012 - Senior - 5
  • 2013 - Senior - Freshman - 2
  • 2014 - Freshman - 1
  • 2015 - Freshman - 1

Another look:
  • NCAA Tournament wins under Bill Self: 27 = 2.25 average wins
  • NCAAT wins with a One-and-done player: 1, 3, 2, 1, 1 = 1.6 average wins
  • NCAAT wins without a One-and-done: 3, 0, 0, 3, 6, 2, 5 = 2.71 average wins
  • NCAAT wins with Senior leadership: 0, 6, 1, 3, 5, 2 = 2.83 average wins
  • NCAAT wins without Senior leadership: 3, 0, 3, 2, 1, 1 = 1.67 average wins

Notes:
  • I declared no senior leadership for a few teams that people might disagree with: 2004 (Jeff Graves), 2006 (Jeff Hawkins + Christian Moody) and 2014 (Tarik Black). I didn't consider any of these players among the top on the team. Also it helped balance out the study.
  • I gave Ben McLemore the one-and-done label for 2013, even though he was technically a second year player, having redshirted the season before.

Statistical Analysis:

Self's most accomplished teams have come equipped with senior leadership and no one-and-done players, reaching the National Championship Game twice out of four such instances, while losing in the Elite 8 and first round in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

Over the last six years, the only time KU's season didn't end in (what I would consider) disappointment was 2012, the one year without a one-and-done. Furthermore, every Bill Self team with a one-and-done player at KU has bowed out to a lower seeded team in the NCAA Tournament.

In fact, throughout his time at KU, Self has only lost to a higher seeded team three times - Georgia Tech in 2004, Michigan St. in 2009 and Kentucky in the 2012 National Championship Game. This serves as both a testament to KU's shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament, as well as how good KU has been in the regular season, earning top seeds year after year (KU's seedings under Self: 4, 3, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2).

Arguments:

I think it's obvious to say every coach would love to have senior leadership up and down their squad, but that's not really a task that is easily controllable, so case closed on that one.

But what about the recruitment of potential one-and-dones? You may look at this data and already be convinced it's for the worse. Or you may dismiss this data due to sample size and happenstance.

However, at what point do these results become an undeniable trend? Or will it never reach that point, given that a championship team with a one-and-done and no senior leadership would more than likely balance the scales?

For transparency's sake, I've never been in favor of having one-and-done type players, a personaly philosophy dating back to before the beginning of this case study. I had an irrefutable argument up until Carmelo Anthony (or maybe, Gerry McNamara, to be more accurate), a pretty strong case before Anthony Davis, and finally, something resembling a case until Jahlil Okafor last year.

My stance has since lessened slightly, but I still argue those are generational type players, and for whatever reason, they haven't panned out at KU, even including a #1 draft pick like Andrew Wiggins.

But why would that be?

My arguments, outside of the first 1,500 words of this article: 1. It's easier to sustain greatness and build team chemistry with three and four year players. And 2. I don't trust the motives of one-and-done players, who I believe are generally more focused on their draft stock than winning games in March (don't hate the player for this, hate the game).

The initial counter-argument is clear and simple: You never turn down talent. You want the best basketball players you can find and you figure out the rest later. Additionally, the players reaching the NBA are reaping dividends for the program throughout their careers.

Conclusion:

The goal of this article wasn't to sway you one way or the other, but rather to supply the data and the arguments for both sides of what I consider a great debate that is getting more and more interesting over the years.

I wouldn't consider this highly scientific study to be anything conclusive. We're still talking about a small sample size, given the single elimination nature of the NCAA Tournament.

Obviously, the much better barometer of Self's career at KU would be the 11 straight conference titles, one of the more impressive achievements in the history of sports. However, nobody debates the greatness of Self or KU as a regular season titan. The questions begin to surface when it comes to late March.

So the only question that remains now is how the 2016 Kansas Jayhawks, armed with senior leadership and a potential one-and-done player, will affect this debate?

His Dirkness

Friday, December 11, 2015

FanDuel NFL Week 14: Fuck, Marry, Kill

I hope last night a sweet taste in the mouth of all the "bad football" truthers out there.

One of my biggest bugaboos of this NFL season is the onslaught of media members who constantly race to their Twitter accounts to comment on all of the "bad football" being played.

I'm not entirely sure when this supposed golden age of "good football" took place. Or what even constitutes bad football: Parity in the league? Poor coaching? Poor QB play?

It annoys me because while these people groan and complain, I'm over here begging for the NFL season to slow down so I can soak in my 17 favorite days of the calendar year (16 Chiefs games + Festivus).

Or maybe, if last night couldn't sway them, Will Smith can: Hey. You. TELL THE TRUTH.

Regardless, last night's game was spectacular. I enjoyed every minute of it. And I came away pretty impressed with the Vikings for sticking with my Super Bowl favorites every step of the way.

Why do I like the Cardinals as SB favorites? For beginners, all of the attention is on the 12-0 Panthers right now. The Bird Gang is flying under the radar a bit, but will still earn the all important bye.

Carson Palmer appears to be on a mission, coming off of his surgery. Bruce Arians is the best coach in the NFL who hasn't put his hands on a female ref in the past week. They have playmakers scattered all over the defense. They have a young RB with fresh legs for the home stretch. And they're aggressive on both sides of the ball. Now lets FanDuel.
On to the Week 14 FMK's (find an older post for FMK explanations)...

***If you've never tried FanDuel and you're interested, this is a great time to try. I've got great deals from now until the end of the season, get at me on Twitter or Facebook OR simply follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 14 on FanDuel

Quarterback

Fuck - Alex Smith ($6800) - My guy. My quarterback. How bout rushing yards his last 5 weeks: 23-35-33-33-78 with two TD's sprinkled in there. San Diego offered little resistance in the last meeting, with Alex going 20-25 for 253. He just didn't get any scores. That'll change this week.

Marry - Drew Brees ($7900) - A situation worth monitoring with Cooks and Snead banged up - BUT - Breesus hung up 38 on the Panthers last week and then had his price drop. Mark Ingram is out and the Bucs have a stout run defense, so the Saints will definitely be marching through the air. Lots of QB's to choose from this week though. Spread the wealth.

Kill - Johnny Football ($6400) - Don't necessarily hate him as a play but here's a fun prop bet from Bovada: Johnny's status for Week 1 of 2016:
  • Starting QB - Browns: +250
  • Backup QB - Browns: +250
  • Backup QB - other team: +300
  • Starting QB - other team: +500
  • “None of the above” +200
Those odds for none of the above me surprise me a bit. I don't think he falls out of the league just quite yet. It does feel like he's done in Cleveland though. I think they ship him off and draft another QB in the first round. And I think he catches on somewhere. So I'm going with "Backup QB - other team" at +300.

Facebook pokes - Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor

Running Back

Fuck - Shaun Draughn ($6500) - Not the homerun I was hoping for last week, but he was still a decent fuck. The rushing output isn't all the way there, but he has 22 catches in his 4 starts. And he gets the Browns, who already have their sights set on that #1 pick. Also, his last name autocorrects to Dragon on my computer. That's gotta be worth something.

Marry - LeSean McCoy ($7900) - Revenge game, baby. Honestly, I think he’s an idiot, which is 84% influenced by my love for Chip Kelly. He got shipped off for legitimate reasons. He went to an undesirable location. He was frustrated. And he took the easy way out by using his race as a crutch to air those frustrations, while tarnishing a man’s name in the process. All one man's opinion, but I say that's some bullshit.

Kill - Devonta Freeman ($8700) - He has 59 rushing yards combined in his last two complete games. He hasn't scored a rushing TD since October 15th. And the Panthers have been shutting RB's down lately.

Facebook pokes - Matt Forte, Thomas Rawls, Deangelo Williams, Lamar Miller, TJ Yeldon, Ronnie Hillman or CJ Anderson (if one is out), Ryan Mathews

Wide Receiver

Fuck - Allen Hurns ($6600) - Was producing right alongside my guy, A-Rob, until injuries kept him in and out of the lineup over the last month. He's supposedly 100% now. The Colts' only good CB, Vontae Davis, should chase A-Rob, alongside everybody on FanDuel who wants to cash in on his 3 TD performance last week. Hurns might be my favorite play in a week with no home runs.

Marry - AJ Green ($8500) - His last four games against the Steelers: 11-118-1, 8-82, 11-224-1, 9-93. It could be a shootout on Sunday. And Pittsburgh is solid against the run, terrible against the pass. Good team to attack.

Kill - DeAndre Hopkins ($8700) - I've held to it all season long: The Belichick Effect. He singles out the opponent's top weapon and gameplans to stop him. That's clearly Hop for the Texans.

Facebook pokes - Odell Beckham Jr, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffrey, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Devante Parker, Brandon Coleman (watch Cooks/Snead)

Tight End

Gronk - Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5500) - A bit of a risk but TE is tough this week. ASJ only played 21 snaps last week but saw 6 targets. This week he gets the gold mine of the Saints defense. High risk, potentially high reward.

Marry - Greg Olsen ($6600) - Plug and play. Every week. His salary never rises and he's been way more consistent than Gronk this year.

Kill - Delanie Walker ($6100) - He's been eating lately. And he was great on Highly Questionable this week. But the Jets have the 2nd best defense against TE's. 

Facebook pokes - Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Will Tye

Kicker

Fuck - Cairo Santos ($4700) - Team MVP at $4700 alert.

Marry - Graham Gano ($4900) - Double digit points on FanDuel in 5 of his last 6 weeks.

Kill - Matt Bryant ($5000) - A super contrarian play because he isn't playing on Sunday.

Defense

Fuck - Lions ($4700) - The Chiefs cost only $100 more, but that's an obvious play. Detroit gets St. Louis, who has scored 36 points in their last 4 games combined.

Marry - Seahawks ($5300) - This is really odd. Matt Schaub is questionable for Sunday and Jimmy Clausen is his backup. He's started one game this season, with the Bears, against Seadderall, in the infamous 11 drive - 11 punt game. And in both games, all of his skill position players were out. Odd season for Jolly Ol' Saint Jim.

Kill - Patriots ($4900) - Defense hasn't been the same since Donta Hightower got hurt. Sorry folks, up against it this week, and no good ideas for Goodell Got It Right. We all lose.

Facebook pokes - 49ers, Packers, Chiefs, Jets

My #1 FanDuel Lineup

QB - Drew Brees
RB - Shaun Draughn
RB - Lamar Miller
WR - Odell Beckham Jr
WR - AJ Green
WR - Brandon Coleman
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Cairo Santos
DEF - Seahawks

***If you've never tried FanDuel and you're interested, this is a great time to try. I've got great deals from now until the end of the season, get at me on Twitter or Facebook OR simply follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 14 on FanDuel

Just one thing, Dude - do you have to use so many cuss words?

His Dirkness

Friday, December 4, 2015

FanDuel NFL Week 13: Fuck, Marry, Kill

Come with me. Hail Mary, run quick see.

Just a quick recap: This season the Detroit Lions nearly lost to the Packers via an onside kick recovery and a Hail Mary. That would've been deserving of its own award. One that only Detroit and Cleveland are capable of competing for.

But can we cool down on the Rodgers da Gawd talk today? He wasn't good for a majority of last night, just as he hasn't played up to his standards for a majority of this season.

Look, Rodgers deserves plenty of praise for lots of different things, but last night wasn't really one of them. It's just an easy thing for people to say, who don't really have an opinion, but still want their voice to be heard. It's sports small talk. It's a single serving conversation about the weather.

Last night he was bailed out by a lateral play, a facemask call, and a Hail Mary. Essentially, the Illuminati. That isn't clutch, as many have suggested. Clutch, atleast in my opinion, is the ability to come through when there is pressure to perform.

There's no pressure on a Hail Mary. It's just dumb luck. It's like winning the lottery. You wouldn't call somebody who just won $10 on a scratcher clutch ... or would you?

Regardless, this is exactly why my picks for this week will be so clutch. Because FanDuel is a game of skill. Not luck. Suck it, Jeb.

On to the Week 13 FMK's (find an older post for FMK explanations)...

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 13 on FanDuel

Quarterback

Fuck - Marcus Mariota ($7100) - I like a number of QB's in this price range, but Mariota is my favorite because he'll be low owned, has a high ceiling, and the only way Tennessee will be able to move the ball on Jacksonville is through the air.

Marry - Cameron Newton ($9000) - Chalkity, chalk, chalkkkkk. Cam will be the highest owned QB by far this week, so I won't have too much of him. However, every week I expect Newton, and the Panthers offense in general, to come back down to earth, and it just hasn't happened yet. It'd be funny if that were to finally happen against this putrid Saints defense.  

Kill - Tom Brady ($9400) - You want to know what was clutch? Tom Brady's drive to tie the game in Denver with one NFL quality receiver on the field. This is an interesting spot because the Eagles gave up defense for Lent or Hannukah or whatever witchcraft Chip Kelly believes in. But I can't spend this much on a QB of such a battered team - No Gronk, no Edelman, no Dion Lewis. No Brady.

Facebook pokes - Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith

Running Back

Fuck - Shaun Draughn ($5900) - My favorite play on the board this week. He played every snap last game. He catches passes. He hasn't produced huge yet, but he's played the Seahawks, Cardinals and Falcons (good run D's). Meanwhile, the Bears have the 29th ranked run defense. And he comes from Running Back University - (No, not UNC) Kansas City! Where every backup RB flourishes. 

FUCK - David Johnson ($5900) - That's right, my first ever double fuck. Marriage seems like kind of a sham these days anyways. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are both out, which means Dave John should play nearly every snap for a potent offense in a game they are likely to be winning throughout.

Kill - Todd Gurley ($8400) - TGIII is probably wearing down. His yards per carry hasn't been pretty the last 4 weeks. And he only played 29 of 74 snaps last week. He's an absolute stay away.

Facebook pokes - DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Javorious "Buck" Allen

Wide Receiver

Marry - Alshon Jeffrey ($7700) - All of the elite WR's are in play this week, but Alshon is cheaper and on the same tier IMO, so he earns the headline. Here's how I'd rank the Big 4:

1. Julio Jones - TB can't stop WR's, this one's almost too obvious
2. Odell Beckham Jr - NYJ shuts down the run and Revis is out
3. Antonio Brown - Huge bounce back potential with potent offense
4. DeAndre Hopkins - Will certainly be the lowest owned, is he losing steam though?

MARRY - Allen Robinson ($8000) - Double marry! Mormon alert! I'll try and keep this cleaner than BYU players have as of late. You save on RB's this week, so you can spend on WR's. This one is simple. Allen Hurns is out and A-Rob has had 100+ yards or a TD in every game since Week 5.

Kill - Sammy Watkins ($7000) - Don't chase the points. Don't do it. Last time Sammy went off like he did last week, he put up 3-14 the next game. He is not reliable.

Facebook pokes - The ELITES, AJ Green (no Eifert), Danny Amendola (if healthy), Brandon Lafell, Eric Decker, Kamar Aiken, John Brown

Tight End

Gronk - Travis Kelce ($6200) - The league's second best TE (sans Gronk) against the league's third worst TE defense. Check.

Marry - Greg Olsen ($6800) - The league's best TE (sans Gronk) against the league's worst TE defense. Checkmate.

Kill - Scott Chandler ($5300) - Yes, he ate up targets last week (sans Gronk), but surely the Patriots come up with something better for Sunday. He doesn't save you enough money and he'll be highly owned.

Facebook pokes - Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed, Jacob Tamme

Kicker

Fuck - Robbie Gould ($4600) - My new strategy with kickers: If you fade a team that's in a favorable spot, then use their kicker. I love Cutler and Alshon this week, but if I'm using a lineup without them, I'll slide in Gould.

Marry - Cairo Santos ($4800) - Can you believe a team MVP costs only $4800?

Kill - Greg Zeurlein ($4500) - He's probably not playing. So don't play him.

Defense

Fuck - Redskins ($4400) - Remember, you're not necessarily playing Washington's defense here. You're playing against Matt Cassel.

Marry - Patriots ($4800) - Coming off a loss, big favorites, at home, Sam Bradford. Yup.

Kill - Goodell Got It Right! Nobody's favorite segment returns once again due to zero demand. This week? Roger's revenge on the Patriots! Hey, he finally won an appeal, you guys. It only took him 13 weeks to get there. So why did I like this when it led to a Broncos victory? Because people are all over Brock Osweiler right now and he's going to fail spectacularly in the playoffs this year. I'm already excited to watch it.

Facebook pokes - Steelers, Jets, Chiefs, Bengals

My #1 FanDuel Lineup

QB - Marcus Mariota
RB - Shaun Draughn
RB - David Johnson
WR - Julio Jones
WR - Allen Robinson
WR - Alshon Jeffrey
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Cairo Santos
DEF - Patriots

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 13 on FanDuel

Just one thing, Dude - do you have to use so many cuss words?

His Dirkness
There was an error in this gadget